Lesson · 4 min Steady
Anchors
In one line The first number you hear pulls your estimates toward it, even when it is arbitrary.
When people estimate a quantity, a number heard first can pull the estimate toward it. In one famous experiment, people spun a wheel that landed on a high or low number and then guessed the share of African countries in the United Nations. Those who saw the high number guessed higher.
This is anchoring. It works even when the anchor is plainly random. Asking prices, opening offers and suggested tips all use it, and buyers adjust from the anchor, often not far enough.
Counter it by forming your own estimate before you hear theirs. Write down a range from your own reasoning, and compare the offer with that range, not the other way round.
The asking price
A seller lists a used bicycle at five hundred dollars. Sol thinks it is worth about three hundred, but after seeing five hundred he offers four hundred and feels he has bargained well.
Later he looks up similar bikes, and they sell for around two-fifty. The listing price had pulled his sense of value upward. Next time he checks prices first and writes down his limit.
Try this today Before a negotiation, write your own estimate first, before anyone names a number.
Cite or share this lesson
A plain reference you can paste into notes or an essay:
Quest2Reason. “Anchors.” https://quest2reason.com/learn/lesson/anchors. Accessed 13 November 2026.
Sources
- Wikipedia, “Anchoring effect” — The pull of a first number on later estimates, including the wheel experiment.
- Tversky and Kahneman, “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” (1974) — The paper describing anchoring and adjustment.