A Reason to Believe

A belief can be true by luck and still be a poor piece of knowledge. The traditional picture says knowledge needs a belief, a truth, and a reason that actually connects them.

The reason has to be the right kind. A hunch that happens to match the world is not yet a reason. A reason is something you could offer, and that would still point at the truth if you checked it.

This does not demand certainty. It demands that you can say why you believe, and that the why is not a coincidence.

The lucky guess

Lee predicts rain because “Tuesdays feel wet.” It rains. Lee says, “I knew it.” The forecast, which Lee did not read, also predicted rain from a front on the radar.

Lee’s belief was true. The support was a mood about Tuesdays. Knowledge would have been the forecast, or looking at the sky, or some other reason tied to the rain.

Try this today Pick something you believe and write the reason you would give to a doubter.