Fallacy · Bad evidence
Gambler’s fallacy
Also called: “It’s due”
Believing that a random event is more or less likely because of what happened just before.
What it is
A fair coin has no memory. After five heads in a row, the next toss is still an even chance. Streaks feel like they must even out soon, but independent chances do not keep score; over many tosses the long run swamps the streak rather than correcting it.
An example
“Red has come up six times in a row on the roulette wheel, so black is due.” The wheel does not know what came up before.
How to spot it
Talk of something being “due” or “bound to” happen in a game of chance.
How to answer it
“Does the next spin depend on the last one?”
When it is not a fallacy
When events are not independent, the past does matter: drawing cards without putting them back changes what is left in the deck.
Printable sheet of all fallacies
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A plain reference you can paste into notes or an essay:
Quest2Reason. “Gambler’s fallacy.” https://quest2reason.com/learn/ideas/fallacies/gamblers-fallacy. Accessed 13 November 2026.